Peru, as an exporter of raw materials will continue to benefit by favorable terms of trade (relative price changes in exports and imports of a country) that shows today, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its regional economic outlook report on America: "The Americas: attentive to overheating," the multilateral institution explained that its close ties to international financial markets, our country will be helped by benign financial conditions externally.
But he warned that bank credit growth is accelerating in much of Latin America (LA), generating concerns about excessive expansion in the long run is unsustainable.
"This is particularly true in countries benefiting from improved terms of trade and abundant capital inflows, where bank credit was growing faster," he said.
Considers the mortgage, that unlike in advanced economies was not greatly affected during the crisis, continues to expand at a rate very fast, especially in Spain, Brazil and Colombia.
"While in these countries the mortgage market is still relatively small-less than 4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - compared with 20% shown in Chile, it is necessary to strengthen monitoring of the sector housing. "
Overheating
Thus, the IMF was more concerned about a possible "overheating" of the economies of Latin America, derived from a still growing above its potential and the strong momentum of domestic demand.
In its report said that while growth in Latin America slowed in 2011, for the strong rates recorded last year, still above the potential growth rate.
Thus, maintaining the growth forecasts for countries in Latin in 2011 and 2012.
Thus, Latin American and Caribbean economies will grow 4.7% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012. This growth will be led by commodity-exporting countries.
According to the IMF, signs of overheating and possible excesses are emerging in several areas "of the Latin American economy, as inflation and current account deficits.
Also in credit growth (especially in Brazil and Peru) and the prices of certain assets, some of which "begin to show signs of a bubble."
The IMF is concerned that stock prices are above trend levels in most countries, and there are signs of "excessive valuations in Chile, Colombia and Peru .
argues that stock prices rebounded significantly after the global crisis and in most countries are above the levels before the crisis, also surpassing the growth of other emerging markets.
"While the existence of systemic bubbles are not obvious and are difficult to measure, share prices currently above trend levels in most countries, and there are signs of excessive valuations in countries like Chile, Colombia and Peru, where the ratios of price / earnings are well above historical averages, "he said.
Details
that the increase in raw material prices is attracting new investments and raising the valuations of companies related to this sector.
The IMF said the price of commodity firms increased sharply since 2005, while its price / earnings remained relatively stable until recently (early 2010), when they began to grow sharply.
Bear in mind that some of the increase in these ratios is transitory, as gains from investments in oil and mineral extraction are slow to be effective.
However, the IMF considers that the authorities should remain vigilant and to consider their assessments to help the markets in the process of price discovery. "
1 The multilateral institution said in its report to ensure consistency with other objectives of monetary policy, those central banks that made major interventions in the foreign exchange market were absorbed significant amounts of liabilities by issuing domestic pay interest.
2 This was particularly evident in the emerging markets of Asia. In Latin America, Brazil, Peru, and Uruguay stand out for their considerable increase in domestic liabilities of central banks.
3 However, interventions in the foreign exchange market were lower in Chile, Colombia and Mexico, so the expansion of money supply that emerged from these operations could, in most cases, be accommodated within path of monetary expansion consistent with the respective inflation targets.
exchange market intervention
The IMF considers that Peru and Uruguay (highly dollarized economies) there is a high level of intervention in the foreign exchange market.
As in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico and Colombia have a low level of intervention to moderate, says the report.
added that daily data on reserves (with monthly intervention data) suggest that in certain periods of the intervention in Brazil stood at a high level.
The IMF report details that in Peru it was found that foreign exchange intervention policy respond to exchange rate volatility, consistent with the objectives declared by the Central Reserve Bank (BCR).
Specifically, we find that average foreign exchange purchases are eight times more small when the exchange rate volatility is low.
Several countries within and outside the region, have been quite sensitive to movements in short-term assessment (one week). Within the region, Peru was a very high sensitivity to these short-term movements, followed at a considerable distance by Colombia.
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